So today’s post is all about tomorrow’s racing, a few very big races, big horses and I wanted to share a few opinions including the revival of Native River vs Might Bite, the Becher Handicap Chase and the Tingle Creek Chase!
First up the 11:30 at Aintree, the Play Casion At Virgin Bet Novices’ Hurdle. If you follow the betting it currently looks like a two horse race. Harry Senior vs Edwardstone. I met the lovely Harry Senior when I visited the Tizzard’s yard a few weeks back. (Cheeky self promo check out that post right here: https://zoelouisesmithx.com/2019/11/22/vip-stable-visit-to-colin-tizzards-venn-farm/ and I was lucky enough to watch him out on the gallops. He’s a lovely horse, his form has been okay as of late with a 4th back in October and a 2nd on November 5th and with the Champ booked for the ride he has got to be one to watch. Edwardstone looks an incredible horse, with a win in his first race of the season back on 9th November at Wincanton he is definitely a contender. Harry Senior is currently around 6/5 with Edwardstone at a slightly better price of around 6/4, 5/1+ the rest. Personally I am swaying towards Harry Senior, I think he’s open to improvement and with Richard Johnson booked to ride in his Gold Cup winning silks and only carrying 10st 12lbs against Edwardstone’s 11st 4lbs it could play a massive part.
Next to discuss is the Randox Health Becher Handicap Chase featuring some very familiar horses everybody knows. My pick of the bunch is One For Arthur, he obviously hasn’t had the greatest couple of years with a few unseated throughout the end of 2018/beginning of 2019 then a 6th in April and a 4th in his season debut. However if he can come back to his best then he is a top class horse. He hasn’t won since winning the Grand National back in April 2017, which is frustrating to say the least. His last race at Kelso back in October was improved however still not as fluent as he used to be. My heart just swings towards him, in hopes he can have a better race this time out around a track he clearly loves. Right now he is around the 8/1 mark, coming in from 12/1, so clearly being heavily backed somewhere. Some good horses in the race including Vintage Clouds, trained by the currently in form Sue Smith at around 8/1, again heavily backed in from 14/1, Definitly Red at 10/1 in from 16/1, Vieux Lion Rouge who was second in this race last year who is currently around the 10/1 mark, the very well known Ballyoptic with Sam Twiston-Davies riding for his dad currently around 14/1. Then the two current favourites, Mulcahys Hill who has been heavily backed from 14/1 into 6/1 favourite and Kimberlite Candy who has been backed from 16/1 into 15/2. Again, a tough race to call, but my heart is with One For Arthur.
Next, the big one, the 2:40, Virgin Bet Price Boosts Many Clouds Chase. The return of Native River vs Might Bite. Now if you know me and you read my last post about my Tizzard’s yard visit, you will know that Native River is my favourite horse ever, so of course my heart is with him all day long. I watched him on the gallops whilst at the Tizzard’s and he looked in great form, me being completely unbiased, I think Native River will win tomorrow, he’s very familiar with Richard Johnson, won over course and distance and should have a decent race. Currently very short at around the 10/11 mark and not really moving away from around that mark. Of course you cannot rule out Might Bite or Black Corton, two very talented horses, currently 5/2 and 10/3 respectively. Might Bite again has won over course and distance, Black Corton has won over the distance, so cannot be ruled out. However my heart and head are saying Native River will win.
Finally, the big Grade One at Sandown, the 3 o’clock Betfair Tingle Creek Chase. Firstly, can I just say, we have truly been treated with this one, what a line up we have! Defi Du Seuil, Politologue, Un De Sceaux, Sceau Royal, Janika, Waiting Patiently, Dolos and Ornua. Just an unreal line up for the race. Firstly, let’s talk about one of my favourite horses I have always followed Politologue who is currently around the 9/2 mark, he has won over course and distance and with a 2nd in his season debut, he has every chance of going one better this time out. The current favourite is another course and distance winner, Defi Du Seuil around the 6/4 mark. 2019 has been a very good year for this boy, only a 6 year old and during 2019 he has had 3 wins and 2 seconds, so definitely the one to watch. On to Un De Sceaux, again, cannot be ruled out, a very talented horse who, again, has won over course and distance. First run of the season which could be a good thing or a bad thing, does he need the run or will he come out better than ever after his win in April and a long summer break, he is currently around 9/2. Next in the line up Sceau Royal, another horse I have had the pleasure of meeting, a gorgeous horse with a great attitude to racing. Another course and distance winning horse, currently around the 6/1 mark. Always been there or there about, with a few seconds and a third during last season, but it has been over 12 months since he last won back at Cheltenham in November 2018. Next, the very talented Janika who is coming into this race on the back of a win on his season debut on November 5th at Exeter, again cannot be ruled out at 8/1, drifting from 4/1 which is an interesting thing to note. Onto Waiting Patiently, a very disappointing horse for me, hasn’t won since February 2018, first time out this season so may come back to his best, currently around 14/1, again drifting a lot from 7/1. Now onto Dolos, another horse that has won over course and distance, made a season debut 2nd back on November 5th, finishing behind Janika, Harry Skelton booked to ride, again drifting from 14/1 out to 33/1. Lastly Ornua, trained by Henry De Bromhead with Aidan Coleman booked to ride, came 2nd back on November 9th, but would need a career best here to come close, currently around 33/1 drifting from 25/1. With a race like this you can’t rule any horse out, all of the horses declared are talented and have great jockey’s booked to ride, anything is possible. My heart would sway toward Politologue, as personally he is a horse I have always followed and it would be nice to see him win and be back at his best again, Harry Cobden taking the ride from Paul Nicholls.
There are just a few of my opinions on a couple of tomorrow’s races, let me know your opinions over on my twitter page, who are you betting on? Any E/W chances? Any accumulators you fancy? I would love to hear everybody else’s opinions!
Thank you for reading, I really hope you have enjoyed my opinions and I cannot wait to see you all in my next post.